Monday Morning UPDATE: Clearly the bullish count is in effect and we should expect the SPX to see 1350-65 by the middle of March. Tonight I’ll be adding a system for the RUSSELL – TNA/TZA and for Copper – FCX to the mix. Hope everyone is enjoying the ride!
For the INDEX SWING SIGNALS SEE FRIDAY’S POST!
Back on 12/17/10 I suggested a possible alternative count that what many were calling wave [iii] of (1) of  might actually be only (i) of [iii]. We should finally find out which count we’re on this week. The truth will lie in the 1313 pivot resistance area. Should the market gap over it on Monday, it is likely to continue its move to the 1350-1365 area. Should the 1313 pivot reject this move then intermediate wave (1) of primary wave  might finally be finished. But, is it time yet?
I have daily counts for the SPX, INDU, RUT and COMPQ. The most bearish appears to be the RUT. Below is the RUT, of all the indexes it seems to fit my old primary count that intermediate wave (1) is about to end. The RUT also channels very well from an EW perspective respecting the 2/4 lines well, and a 23.6% retracement of (1) in intermediate (2) will take it back to the 2/4 line as it did in P1. The RUT has move up 220 points since the P2 low, which is already about 30% greater than (i) of P1, which is more than the other indexes have outpaced (1) of P1. And, the more bullish count just doesn’t work very well for the RUT because its wave (i) of [iii] would be longer than its (iii) of [iii]. Plus the RUT has broken down from its bearish rising wedge and has merely been able to retest the broken wedge thus far.
The Nasdaq, INDU and SPX all seem to favor the more bullish count that minor wave [iii] of intermediate wave (1) is still unfolding. For the SPX and DOW it would appear that they are in the last leg of minuette (iii) of minor wave [iii]. The Nasdaq appears to have begun minuette (v) of [iii]. Under this scenario, the indexes should rally into mid to late March before any relief for the bears. Once again watch the 1313 pivot for the clue.
UPRO at 230.+ is expensive to go long with. Does anyone have a better pick on the long side? Thanks.