Updated primary count [iv] of (iii) of [iii]. 1308.98 must hold for this count to remain valid. Otherwise (iii) is complete and likely larger degree (iv) of [iii] is on
1308.98 is the wave i of v of (iii) high, any breach of this and the larger degree wave (iv) of [iii] is underway. Once this wave is confirmed it should retrace 23.6%-38.2% (see chart above – possible targets are 1295, 1277, both correspond nicely to trend lines (black solid and orange dashed)
2023 +57%
2022 -46%
2021 +36%
2020 +40%
2019 +27%
2018 return 6%
2017 return 16.3%
2016 return: +32%
2015 return: +3.6%
2014 return +.02%;
2013 return: +61.78%;
2012 retun: +31%;
2011 return: +77%
Iwill be adding to this section over time as questions come up in the comments section.
1) Do not EMAIL me, or INSTANT MESSAGE me or try to communicate with me in any way asking questions about buying or selling stocks, options, ETFs or anything else…I am not here to give investment advice. This is an educational and entertainment blog. I post my trades and why I trade the way I do for those two purposes. Sometimes you will learn from my good trades other times from my bad trades. But, your investment decisions are YOURS!
2)Stops: These are based upon daily closing prices for ETFs and stock, but are real time for OPTIONS. If peg a stop to a moving average for a specific time frame, then it is fluid and is based upon the final candle for that time frame. For example, if the stop is the 50 MA on the 60 minute chart, then the position remains if the closing candle for the day on the 60 min chart is above the 50 MA on that chart, and it closes out if it is below the MA. However, there are times when one shouldn’t wait for the close: a) should an index break down below a key pivot area that I have highlighted, then one need not wait for the close to exit a position, b) if it is evident that an index will close on the wrong side of a stop, then one can exit. Or, should the indexes impulse in the direction opposite the position.
3) The Portfolio at times will trade against the Alphahorn Swing System, based upon either immediate term indicators and/or Elliott wave counts. These positions should be viewed as high risk entries and like all investment decisions, one should consult their investment advisors and/or consider one’s own risk tolerance before considering such positions. Like everything else on this site, these are not recommendations to trade any particular security.
4) Do not ask me what my indicators are. I’ve spent years developing them and they are proprietary.
5) Averaging Down: In a word – DON’T! NEVER EVER AVERAGE DOWN. If you follow the position sizing rule above then this rule should be implied automatically. Once you’ve invested 2% of you capital your have reached the limit and NO MORE CAPITAL IS TO BE COMMITTED TO THAT POSITION!
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Nice work, thanks.
Tony THESE CHARTS ARE LIVE, unlike the previous system they are updated as the day unfolds, the daily close is what is relevant, but there are times when the close is obvious, so do check in
Also, I would expect the pivot of 1315 to hold for a close if this is still (iii) of [iii]. I would view a breach of the pivot a sign of a bigger pullback. Also, this can be wave the larger degree wave [iv] unfolding via a triangle and it too could stay above the 1315 pivot before the final push to 1330-35
Alpha,
Are the suggested stops based on closing prices?
Thank you.
Good question, should have made that more clear. Theoretically yes, this is a daily chart and it’s the close that matters. However, if it seems very likely that a trade is only going to go south from where it is midday based on one’s indicators, then I go ahead and exit. Which system in particular were you referring to?
ERX.
On ERX I’d hold out for the close, you might also want to play the 21 EMA and hold for anything above that. Energy is at the end of a great wave 3, I hate to bet on its ending an leave a bit on the table, but you can always get back in. I have a feeling this is a fourth wave and it’s going to spurt one more time up.