Tuesday Morning

9:50 a.m. c.s.t. update:  The wedge has fallen, but the channel remains in tact.  I took a little off with the break of the wedge, but my primary stop is beneath the channel.

Things continue to weaken, tightening my stops on all indexes except Copper, Gold and Transports.  Looks like the SPX will soon break down out of bearish rising wedge.

Those of you who have been following me for awhile have seen my correlation between the

TNX and the equity markets of late, particularly when it comes to marking short to intermediate term tops. Well, the TNX might have completed its first 5 waves up as it turned down several days ago (or it could still have one more minor push that could last a week or so).  It had built up quite a bit of of negative divergence and I was waiting for the signal to go long TYD.  I’m looking for treasury yields to bounce today and will begin to scale into a small position in TYD as that occurs.  But once again, this could also be signal that wave [iii] has ended and wave [iv] of intermediate wave (1) might be commencing.

About alphahorn

I received an MBA from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business in New York and am a Wall Street veteran. I’ve worked for a number of investment banks including Smith Barney and First Boston/C S First Boston in New York. Over the years, I have developed my own Proprietary Swing System and I combine that System with my own Elliott Wave Analysis to trade.
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11 Responses to Tuesday Morning

  1. Kisco3 says:

    Thanks for the update. I check in here many times a day and this is really appreciated.

  2. Bill W says:

    So far only XLP has hit the suggested stop. Several of the indicators for XLP now signal short and negative momentum divergences go back several months. Does this one swing to a short position once it drops below the 21 EMA?

    • alphahorn says:

      remember the stop is based upon a closing price. as long as it sits on top of the 21 EMA i’m ok with it, but we must be certain that it will close beneath the 21 to exit

      • Bill W says:

        Okay thanks. Some further clarification please regarding your use of stops and the swing system. If based on a closing price do you pretty much wait until close and sell in the aftermarket session if hit? Do you get a sense intra-day that the stop will likely be hit by close and look to exit the position prior to the close? In the swing system you are using here do you swing the other way immediately (as long as the other indicators point to a directional confirmation) short (from long) upon close below the 21 EMA or long (from short) upon close above the 21 EMA or just go to cash for the particular position?

  3. alphahorn says:

    Bill, I’ve talked about that at length before. Yes, if it’s apparent that the markets have broken down or impulsed up, then you don’t have to wait until the end of the day. If a key pivot is taken out that too is a reason to exit prior to the close

  4. Aurelia says:

    Thanks for the intraday updates Alphahorn. Was wondering if you have ever considered or tried the system on shorter timeframes, 4 or 1 hour for example? Would that make sense?

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