What Sayeth the Ultimate Wave Counter???

This current pullback has thrown the wave counters into a bit of a tizzy.  When in doubt, I go to my daily Renko chart, which has been absolutely spot on counting waves.  Look how nicely it has counted all the waves off the March 2009 low.  With the lone exception of intermediate wave (5) of P[1], all the waves have subdivided as expected.  The Primary waves (black) [1] and [2] subdivided nicely into intermediate waves (red) (1)-(5) and (a), (b), (c) patterns.  The intermediate waves have subdivided into very nice minor waves 1,2,3,4 and 5.  And, one of the key differentiating factors has been how minor wave 3 has subdivided into 5 clear minute (green) waves [i], [ii], [iii], [iv], [v].  This appears to be current count.  P[3] has thus far traced out minor waves 1 and 2.  Note that even though minor wave (blue) 5 of intermediate (red) (1) was the extended wave, minor wave (blue) 3 still subdivided into five nice minute waves.  Therefore, we should expect minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) of Primary wave [3] to also subdivide into 5 discernible minute waves.  It appears that wave [i] is in the books and wave [ii] is underway.  The next white brick that appears will mark the beginning stages of minute wave [iii] of 3.

Having said this, a rare expanded flat corrective wave could be in the works.  We have not had this type of wave since the 3/09 lows, so there is not a representative example. But, for now I’m thinking horses not zebras. The safest play is to wait for the Renko to produce a white brick before going long.  Time will tell, let’s see if the Ultimate Wave Counter delivers yet again.

About alphahorn

I received an MBA from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business in New York and am a Wall Street veteran. I’ve worked for a number of investment banks including Smith Barney and First Boston/C S First Boston in New York. Over the years, I have developed my own Proprietary Swing System and I combine that System with my own Elliott Wave Analysis to trade.
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