We’ve had a great ride here since calling the bottom at 1258, seeing the portfolio record incredible gains over a very short period of time. We have taken some excellent profits already, TNA trade profited 28.12% and the FAS trade 12.88%.
Back on June 26th I pointed out the lower lows made by the RUT and NDX were not confirmed by the major indexes DOW, SPX and that this was a signal that the tide was turning back to the bulls favor and the run to new highs was about to begin (see chart above). The Transports followed by the NDX have already made new highs and the RUT is within a whisker of following suit, it will likely only be a matter of time before the major indexes take out their recent highs as well.
The portfolio has maintained the rest of its positions. The choice was made not to exit on Friday afternoon in spite of the weakness and the gap down opening for several reasons. First, the SPX is still bullish on virtually all time frames from 15 to daily. Below are my 15 candlestick and Renko charts, both are for very short term trading and a gap down on Monday could easily wipe out their bullish set ups, but I’m staying with the trend until it changes:
Next is the 30 min chart (below) with my updated wave count. I believe I was too early in calling the top of minuette wave (iii) of minute wave [iii] as it continued to subdivide.
And finally my daily charts, both candlestick and Renko, echo the bullish set up for the market.
The big question next week is highlighted on the 30 min chart, is the fourth wave over or does it have some play left before the SPX makes its final push to the 1369 pivot to complete minute wave [iii]?
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