No decision yet for the markets. The bulls clearly have reason to be happy as the SPX tested the lower trend line of the bullish channel and bounced nicely off of it. Yet, until the upper red trend line is breached I still favor the bearish count. I eliminated the black channel I had drawn on this chart as it fell today. But everything I said about the double tap of the upper trendline on that channel remains true for the red channel, even more so as the upper line is the true 2/4 line if the bearish count holds. Check out the purple boxes on red upper trend line, it marked intermediate wave [red] (2) of P[A], minor wave [blue] 2 of intermediate wave (3) of P[A], and primary wave [B]. It would be consistent for minor wave [blue] 2 of intermediate wave [red] (1) of primary wave [C] to also test it. In addition, look at the move down to 1215 on the 10 min chart below. And, look at the move up from 1215, which looks impulsive, which one has taken longer to not even cover the same amount of ground?
As I wrote last night the safest trade is to wait for either a breach of the red upper trend line (bullish) or the lime green lower trend line (bearish) to enter a trade (60 min chart up top); this remains true. Similarly if one has a position either long or short, they can exit and wait (all the positions were green at one point today) or stay in until the market shows its hand.
The indexes remain strong in fact all 11 indexes are on BUY/LONG. Even more disconcerting for the bearish count, GOLD is the strongest, the DOLLAR the weakest of the signals.
