Weekend Update

One of my bottom indicators has signaled that a bottom is in or within a trading day of being in (we could see a lower open then a green close on Monday, or a gap and go on Monday).  This particular signal has a near perfect record of predicting at least a short term change in direction (It is a perfect 3 for 3 in the past 12 months predicting bottoms-my bet is it’s about to become 4 for 4).  This signal comports with the channel support that I’ve been showing, see 60 min SPX chart above – with the bearish count).  This bounce should be relatively modest and there should be more downside to follow.Eventually the SPX will make a lower low.  The daily chart above illustrates my bullish count.  But, whether it turns out to be the bullish or bearish count the next stop is the lower blue channel line on that chart, which I suspect will coincide with the dark green shaded area.  This is both a magnet and tremendous support.  We should see a sizable bounce once this area is reached.  What happens after that bounce will dictate market direction for the next 6 months (bearish case) to 5 years (bullish case).

The Alphahorn Swing Signals remain unchanged with 10 SHORT/SELL signals and only the Dollar on a LONG/BUY singal:

About alphahorn

I received an MBA from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business in New York and am a Wall Street veteran. I’ve worked for a number of investment banks including Smith Barney and First Boston/C S First Boston in New York. Over the years, I have developed my own Proprietary Swing System and I combine that System with my own Elliott Wave Analysis to trade.
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4 Responses to Weekend Update

  1. LAYOR says:

    I am assuming that all stops are still off at this time??

  2. TMF says:

    So the target is the same for bearish count, 1100 ? Then a rally for c3-2? thx

    • alphahorn says:

      Not sure what you’re asking, I think the SPX is heading to the target of 1118ish to complete either intermediate wave (1) of [C] of the bearish count or intermediate wave (2) of P[1] of Cycle 3 for the bullish count, from there it will either rally for several weeks (bearish count) or several years (bullish count).

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