Weekend Update

A pullback is due tomorrow, the question is how deep and how long.  Has the pullback I was forecasting last week ended, and with it either wave (B) bearish count or wave [ii] of 3 of  bullish count.  Most around the Internet seem to think so, but I’m not so sure.  My preferred count is that Friday’s pop was just an x wave that will be followed by another abc move down to complete either (B) or [ii].  Once again, I’m watching the upper channel trend line like a hawk.  In the immediate term, I’m looking for at the very least a pullback to 1240-45, but more than likely to the 1221-25 area.A look at the 30 min chart above shows shows the inverse head and shoulders that I mentioned last week as a possibility is forming.  If it seeks symmetry, then the double left shoulders will be matched by two right shoulders, which comports with my favorite count that has this first dip as the inside shoulder and should be followed by a deeper one for the outside shoulder.  Of course, it doesn’t have to be symmetrical, and should it rocket from here then the alternative count is on that wave (C) bearish or [iii] of the bullish count is underway.The Portfolio will evaluate things tomorrow to see if it makes sense to unload some positions around SPX 1245.  As I’ve noted, this is a risky position trying to milk the most out this last month by playing minor trends, though the larger trend remains up for both bearish and bullish scenarios.  The indexes are reflecting the larger trend – LONG and STRONG save for GOLD which remains SHORT/SELL:

About alphahorn

I received an MBA from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business in New York and am a Wall Street veteran. I’ve worked for a number of investment banks including Smith Barney and First Boston/C S First Boston in New York. Over the years, I have developed my own Proprietary Swing System and I combine that System with my own Elliott Wave Analysis to trade.
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1 Response to Weekend Update

  1. Pingback: Public Weekend Update | Alphahorn's Market Musings

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