Weekend Update

Alphahorn Swing 2015No changes for the indexes on Friday as the biotech, Nasdaq and Financial indexes remain on short/sell signals, the rest on long/buy signals.  I’m looking  to enter the long trade for Wheat if it opens green on Monday, same for NUGT/miners on a green opening.  I clearly made a mistake exiting the Nasdaq short trade before the System’s confirmation, I’ll watch it closely as well.

The 30 min chart shows the two favorite scenarios: the blue count is the more immediate term bullish, but with a lower ultimate ceiling for the SPX.  This count is looking for an impulsive move up in minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (5) of primary wave [5].  The green count is that intermediate wave (2) of primary primary wave [5] is underway and likely will see a lower low before it then impulses upward.  Ultimately, this count could see the SPX add 400+ points to its current level before this bull market draws to a close.  And this count is, optically at least, gaining steam.spx 30The daily SPX chart below shows the 2 scenarios (with my old coloring for different wave levels rather than scenarios). Will we see a more immediate term conclusion via a double top with a slightly higher all time or high, or will we see a prolonged march toward 2500 SPX?  Perhaps the Renko and NYMO charts are shedding some light, see below.spx dailyThe SPX daily Renko chart has been a great wave counter for this entire bull market.  Although, fifth primary waves are often weak, we have yet to have an intermediate wave that doesn’t appear to subdivide into minor waves on the Renko.  Based on its history, the Renko seems to like the green scenario.renkoAnd lastly, the NYMO chart still hasn’t signaled an immediate term bottom.  The more immediate term bearish outlook, correlates to the much more bullish long term resolution.  If this chart plays out as it typically does, then the SPX is likely in intermediate wave (2) with another leg down in the immediate term ahead of us. In the end, whichever count carries the day, the long side for equities appears to be the safe side for now.nymo

About alphahorn

I received an MBA from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business in New York and am a Wall Street veteran. I’ve worked for a number of investment banks including Smith Barney and First Boston/C S First Boston in New York. Over the years, I have developed my own Proprietary Swing System and I combine that System with my own Elliott Wave Analysis to trade.
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