Portfolio began 2011 @ $100,000; current value $1,033,617
2020 YTD +29% as of 12/1/2020
2019 +27%
2018 return 6%
2017 return 16.3%
2016 return: +32%
2015 return: +3.6%
2014 return +.02%;
2013 return: +61.78%;
2012 retun: +31%;
2011 return: +77%
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Trading Rules
Iwill be adding to this section over time as questions come up in the comments section.
1) Do not EMAIL me, or INSTANT MESSAGE me or try to communicate with me in any way asking questions about buying or selling stocks, options, ETFs or anything else…I am not here to give investment advice. This is an educational and entertainment blog. I post my trades and why I trade the way I do for those two purposes. Sometimes you will learn from my good trades other times from my bad trades. But, your investment decisions are YOURS!
2)Stops: These are based upon daily closing prices for ETFs and stock, but are real time for OPTIONS. If peg a stop to a moving average for a specific time frame, then it is fluid and is based upon the final candle for that time frame. For example, if the stop is the 50 MA on the 60 minute chart, then the position remains if the closing candle for the day on the 60 min chart is above the 50 MA on that chart, and it closes out if it is below the MA. However, there are times when one shouldn’t wait for the close: a) should an index break down below a key pivot area that I have highlighted, then one need not wait for the close to exit a position, b) if it is evident that an index will close on the wrong side of a stop, then one can exit. Or, should the indexes impulse in the direction opposite the position.
3) The Portfolio at times will trade against the Alphahorn Swing System, based upon either immediate term indicators and/or Elliott wave counts. These positions should be viewed as high risk entries and like all investment decisions, one should consult their investment advisors and/or consider one’s own risk tolerance before considering such positions. Like everything else on this site, these are not recommendations to trade any particular security.
4) Do not ask me what my indicators are. I’ve spent years developing them and they are proprietary.
5) Averaging Down: In a word – DON’T! NEVER EVER AVERAGE DOWN. If you follow the position sizing rule above then this rule should be implied automatically. Once you’ve invested 2% of you capital your have reached the limit and NO MORE CAPITAL IS TO BE COMMITTED TO THAT POSITION!
IMPORTANT NOTICE
The content on this blog (Alphahorn.wordpress.com) is provided as information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including advertisements, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author (Alphahorn) and are for entertainment purposes only. Alphahorn is not a licensed investment advisor or commodity trading adviser nor is he licensed as such with any federal or state regulatory agency. Alphahorn does not manage client assets in any way. Any investment decision that results in losses or gains made based on any information on this site is not the responsibility of Alphahorn. Alphahorn may make statements about certain investment vehicles and strategies, but it is not to be taken as investment advice. I provide an educational service, not an advisory or stock recommendation service. At times, Alphahorn will analyze the technical structure (chart) of various stocks or financial markets, but he is in no way compensated by the companies he analyzes either in reports or daily commentaries. All examples are provided for educational purposes.- Follow Alphahorn's Market Musings on WordPress.com
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Year-End Update: Another great year +40% for 2020

Another great year for the Alphahorn Portfolio finishing the year up 40% bringing the Portfolio value to approximately $1.23 million. The slate was wiped clean at midnight eastern on 12/31. We enter 2021 with only the Bitcoin holding. Over the past several months, we have seen nice moves for Bitcoin over the weekend and this weekend is no exception. BTC is up over 10% since the midnight 12/31 close. Also regarding the Alphahorn Swing System, every index enters the year on a long/buy Signal. Two sectors, biotech and Energy however are on sell/short Alerts and need closes below BIB 85.86 and XLE 37.01 to confirm those Signals. I’m in a wait and see mood with the potential volatility coming out of Washington. As always I’ll post should any trades be made.













The wave count is looking for the completion of a diagonal. For the red count it would be a leading diagonal for minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (5) of primary wave [1]. For the purple count, it would represent an ending diagonal for intermediate wave (5) and thus primary wave [1].

In addition to the red and purple counts shown above, there is also a bullish blue count scenario. The blue count lags the other counts as it is only in minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) of primary wave [1]. I won’t spend too much time on this until the diagonal is invalidated or 3833 as labeled in purple above.

Below is the key chart for the next couple of weeks. We’ve been watching the NASI chart below as a leading indicator for a Nasdaq top. The negative divergence between the indicators and price (shaded area) have historically predicted tops. We are finally beginning to see signs of that divergence, which of course requires higher highs for the Nasdaq as the indicators roll over. But, at last the top seems to be in sight.

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One trading day left in 2020: Up 41% YTD

2020 has been a volatile year of trading. But the Portfolio has had another nice year currently up 41% going into the last trading day of the year. With the exception of Bitcoin, the few remaining positions will be exited just before the close tomorrow. For Bitcoin this years returns, and the benchmark for next year’s returns will be the price of BTC at midnight eastern standard time as the east coast welcomes the new year. The Portfolio in its 10 years of existence has grown from $100,000 in value 1/1/2011 to its current value of over $1.132 million. And, it has outperformed the vast majority of money managers and hedge funds by achieving an ~11 fold increase in value, or a CAGR of ~27.5% over a 10 year period. I wish all of you a Happy New Year and a prosperous and hopefully more sane 2021.













The indicators on the 30 min chart are beginning to turn down from over bought levels. If the diagonal count is correct, then we are seeing either a leading diagonal for minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (5) of primary wave [1] or and ending diagonal that completes intermediate wave (5) of primary wave [1]. Should we see a pullback as the new year opens for trading as this chart seems to suggest, then the depth of the pullback will be the differentiating factor between the two wave count scenarios. The red count must find support above the intermediate wave (4) low. The purple wave count calls for a much deeper pullback in primary wave [2] that should take out the intermediate wave (4) low.

Below is the NASI chart that I’ve been showing off and on with the Nasdaq in the background (shaded area). As I’ve noted, this chart is a great leading indicator to a top and does a great job of building negative divergence between the indicators and the Nasdaq price. This negative divergence has not materialized. Thus, I would expect higher highs for the Nasdaq, perhaps after a small pullback to build the negative divergence needed.

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