3/1/2011 Public Update – Signals to follow

Well this sure feels like a wave 4. Wave 4s are notoriously pains in the butt to trade, moving from buy to sell signals as they whipsaw all over the place.  Yet, when you look at the bigger picture such as my daily chart that I’ve posted before (above) it is well within my expectations.  As I noted a couple of days ago, the 1294 low could either have been the entire wave [iv] of 3 or just the (a) leg, and we still don’t know for sure which it was.  The move up to 1332 could likewise either be (i) of [v] of 3 or the (b) leg of [iv] of 3.  Due to the strength of the move down below the 61.8% retracement area of 1308, the odds favor this current move as the (c) leg of [iv] headed to the 1280ish area or the orange dashed 2/4 line (see mid line of the channel – above).  This is the expected stop for this wave if my count is correct – see how both waves [i] and [iii] touch the upper trend line, also [ii] and [iv] should touch the lower trend line (in this case I’m talking about the lower trendline for intermediate wave 3, which happens to be the mid line for the larger Primary wave [3] channel.  This is how we should expect this wave 3 to channel.

About alphahorn

I received an MBA from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business in New York and am a Wall Street veteran. I’ve worked for a number of investment banks including Smith Barney and First Boston/C S First Boston in New York. Over the years, I have developed my own Proprietary Swing System and I combine that System with my own Elliott Wave Analysis to trade.
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