Three free days – Day 2 – Sunday Update

If you haven’t seen yesterday’s post, then check it out below for the immediate term view of the markets.  Today, I’m going to review the long term and intermediate term trends and then the short/swing trend indicators.

No big surprise, the long term trend remains solidly BEARISH.

The proprietary Alphahorn BULL/BEAR Indicator is only strengthening on the Bearish side (note the gap between the red and green lines is as wide as it has been in the past several years), more than likely signaling that this Bear market still has months ahead of it as primary waves P[B] and [C] complete Cycle 2.  This indicator accurately labeled the entire bull market run from March 2009 – July 2011, without whipsaw.

Above, is one of my favorite intermediate term indicators.  The price graph might be a bit too much for some to make sense out of, but the ADX (up top) provides a very clear signal.  For this signal, the ADX is read based upon the lower line: red=short, green=long.  As you can see, the intermediate term signal went short in May and has remained short with a brief exception in July.

The summary table for trades above shows the current trades with stops.  There are currently 5 trades open.  Hopefully, most entered ALL these trades on Friday, but once again the three trades from Wednesday remain because I wasn’t around Thursday to trade and take the stops. For the short term, swing trades we use the indicators on 10 key indexes daily charts.  Seven equity ETFs and three commodity ETFs.  For the first time in quite some time, last week all 10 indexes signaled SELL/SHORT trades.  The strongest index following Friday’s mild bounce is the Nasdaq.  Note on the Nasdaq chart below that one of its 3 indicators has crossed to the bullish side (it takes 2 to signal a change in direction).   

About alphahorn

I received an MBA from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business in New York and am a Wall Street veteran. I’ve worked for a number of investment banks including Smith Barney and First Boston/C S First Boston in New York. Over the years, I have developed my own Proprietary Swing System and I combine that System with my own Elliott Wave Analysis to trade.
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