Just a quick chart.  I haven’t posted this one before that I can remember, but it’s a nice leading indicator vs. the SPX.  As you can see going back to the fall of 2002, there have been 2 significant bottoms and 1 significant top and this indicator has lead each time.  Thus far it either bottomed or topped prior to the SPX then build divergence pointing to a significant trend change.  Now, it has built the largest divergence in 20 years and that divergence is negative.  It topped in early 2011, while the SPX topped a year later.  Based on the history of this indicator, this pullback doesn’t seem to qualify as a significant trend change, nor has it marked a bottom and built positive divergence vs. the SPX.  More later.