I’ve added this language to the upper fixed pane, but I presume most subscribers haven’t noticed it, so I’m re-posting it here:

It has been a very tough year for those who try to outsmart the market.  On 8/20/2012 Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge noted that a mere 11% (now estimated to be only 10%) of hedge funds are beating the SPX’s 12.2% return for 2012 with an average return of only 4.6% http://www.zerohedge.com/news/career-risk-panic-only-11-hedge-funds-are-outperforming-sp-2012“.   While the returns for the Alphahorn Swing System have not lived up to its phenomenal returns of 2011 (2011 returned over 75%), they have far exceeded the returns of the hedge fund average.  The system got off to a great start riding the rally that began in late 2011.  At one point the system was up over 30%.  But, the market chop did take its toll on the System’s returns, at one point returns were reduced to roughly 10%.    My system is a swing system designed to catch and ride trends.  Its strength is that it typically keeps one in a trend allowing one to maximize profits.  It’s weakness is that is subject to draw downs during choppy market periods (wave 4s for instance are brutal on the system).  But, I have found that the pros outweigh the cons on a year in year out basis.  Recently, the markets have begun to trend again; and true to form the System and has caught and rode this trend.  And, in the matter of a month or so it has brought year to date returns back to just over 20% (as of 9/1).  I believe the secret to beating the markets is finding a system that produces results over the long haul and sticking to it, realizing that there will be times it will suffer draw downs and have losing streaks.  I’d love to offer just one subscription option – an annual subscription so that subscribers can witness a long enough span to see the system through its peaks and valleys.  In hindsight my 1 month trial was a bad idea, even a quarter or TWO could produce negative returns.  How managers are graded is on an annual basis.  And this is how I grade my system.  Perhaps in 2013.

In spite of a somewhat choppy week, the Alphahorn Swing System had built up enough positive momentum to not be persuaded by the pullback.  The 2 alerts from Thursday are now off.  All equity and commodity indexes plus Treasuries remain on LONG/BUYS and the Dollar remains on a SHORT/Sell.  Quite often when we see returns reaching the double digit level as we see with this trend, they go on to reach 20-30% across the board.  Let’s hope that is the case again this time.

The lower channel trend line contained Friday’s action on the downside.  And, since a lower low was not made, it is best counted as a wave 1 and 2 of the next leg up for the markets.  The majority of the world is bearish here, we need a nice pop and then there should be plenty of short covering to add fuel to the bear fire.  I will continue to monitor 1374.81; for the bearish count to gain some momentum, it’ll have to break through that level.