Weekend Update

Alphahorn Swing 2015All equities except the leader Real Estate are on short/sell Signals. Real Estate having already had a deep correction has bounced (corrective) and remains on a sell/short Alert and needs a trade below Friday’s low of IYR 74.01 to confirm.  The Dow has already penetrated its lower green barrier (see the daily and weekly DOW charts at the bottom of this post, the Dow could be one of the first indexes to bottom.

The 30 min chart remains on an immediate term sell/short.  No positive divergence has built yet, so this leg probably has a bit more downside before a meaningful bounce occurs. I believe the SPX is in minor wave a of intermediate wave (A) of a fourth wave triangle (see the daily chart down lower).
spx 30Below is the bigger picture daily chart for the SPX.  It still has quite a bit further to the downside if it’s going to reach the typical fourth wave target of the fourth wave of lesser degree at SPX 1820.66.  Should primary wave [4] form a triangle, then intermediate wave (A), will result in the deepest retracement.  But the chop would continue under this scenario for several months.
spx dailyThe Dow is much nearer its wave four of lesser degree low of 15855.  Although Primary Wave [4] can take a variety of shapes, we often see triangles, which I’ve drawn on the weekly cycle chart below.
dow weekly cycle

However, the Nasdaq and RUT resemble the SPX with quite a bit of potential downside ahead before they reach their respective wave fours of lesser degree.  I’m forecasting a triangle, but they can take a number of shapes.

Nasdaq:nasdaq daily

RUT:rut daily

About alphahorn

I received an MBA from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business in New York and am a Wall Street veteran. I’ve worked for a number of investment banks including Smith Barney and First Boston/C S First Boston in New York. Over the years, I have developed my own Proprietary Swing System and I combine that System with my own Elliott Wave Analysis to trade.
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