Weekend Update and Chart Extravaganza

Alphahorn Swing 2015No changes from Friday’s action all indexes remain on long/buy signals.  Corn had a bad day and is worth watching for a possible swing change.  Currently, there are no Alerts.

No changes for the EW counts on the 30 min chart below.  We favor the green count that the low for primary wave [4] is in and from here we’re either seeing the beginning of primary wave [5] or an ongoing primary wave [4] triangle (see below).  The bearish blue and red counts are looking for an SPX print above 2020.86 to complete an expanding triangle for either blue intermediate wave (B) of [4] or minute wave [iv] of (C) of [4].
spx 30The weekly SPX cycle chart once again predicted both the top and a rapid sell of for primary wave [4] as the bottom cycle came right on the heels of the top.spx weekly

Below is the weekly chart for the NYAD cumulative chart.  When advance/declines reverse off the lower BB, then we should expect at least a touch of the upper BB before more downside.  Same can be said for the CCI (upper indicator) turning up from oversold. We should see overbought conditions.  This chart argues for one of the green count scenarios.
nyad weeklyThe monthly Renkos for the SPX and DOW show pretty clean wave counts.  The SPX Renko shows a subdivided primary wave [3] and now a turn up from primary wave [4] for both the index and the majority of indicators.  (Sorry the C1 and C2 labels are incorrect, they should read SC1 and SC2 for both indexes).
spx monthly renkoThe DOW monthly Renko shows a nice wave count; unlike the SPX it has yet to turn up and print a white brick
dow weekly renkoAnd finally, the bull market channels have been preserved.  I showed the monthly charts earlier this week, which paint a very succinct picture of what is likely going on.  Although, I favor the count that primary wave [4] is complete, I’m showing what the triangle count might look like for the SPX and Nasdaq.  The one thing the triangle has going for it is that it will suck in and confuse both bears and bulls alike.  The bears a looking for either a wave two correction of a huge, apocalyptic sell off from a B wave high (a pretty absurd alternative) or some are looking for the continuation of Cycle wave 2 and a bear market correction of an already completed bull market.  The c wave down for triangle would give them ammunition to load their shorts.  The bulls would see the C wave as a wave (2) pullback of primary wave [5].

SPX daily:
spx dailyNasdaq daily:
nasdaq dailyRut daily:
rut daily

About alphahorn

I received an MBA from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business in New York and am a Wall Street veteran. I’ve worked for a number of investment banks including Smith Barney and First Boston/C S First Boston in New York. Over the years, I have developed my own Proprietary Swing System and I combine that System with my own Elliott Wave Analysis to trade.
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