Holiday Update

Greetings from the beautiful Caribbean where my wife and I are celebrating our 30th anniversary today. I wish I could share my present view of the sea as I type this update. Alphahorn Swing 2015.PNGNo changes as we head into the holiday shortened week.  Equities, CORN and WHEAT remain long, while precious metals remain short.

The favorite bullish count is that minor wave 1 is topping or might have topped on Friday.  The negative divergence on the 30 min chart indicates an immediate term pullback is due, agreeing with the wave count as minor wave 2 should retrace 30-40 points of the recent gains.spx 30The coming pullback will give the bears one more ray of hope that the massive sell off they’ve been expecting since May will finally occur.  But as another month draws to a close, I continue to find these simple monthly candlestick charts supportive of the bullish scenario.  While the equities did breach their respective bullish channels on an intra-month basis, they have never seen a monthly close below the channel and ultimately painted bullish reversal hammers as primary wave [4] drew to a close and wave [5] began – according to my favorite bullish count of course.

The daily chart for equities once again shows a number of bullish patterns building.  Minor wave 1 should test these necklines, and then after a pullback in minor wave 2, the bullish count should see an impulsive move up through them in minor wave 3 on its way to new highs.all dailyOf course, there is still the bearish side of things  as they cling to the red line off progressively lower highs.spx daily count.pngf

About alphahorn

I received an MBA from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business in New York and am a Wall Street veteran. I’ve worked for a number of investment banks including Smith Barney and First Boston/C S First Boston in New York. Over the years, I have developed my own Proprietary Swing System and I combine that System with my own Elliott Wave Analysis to trade.
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