I am offering a free trial for the month of August to anyone who request access by emailing me at alphahorn@hotmail.com. After this weekend’s post, subsequent posts will be password restricted. So if you want to follow along, you’ll need the password.
The Swing System is up in all 12 trades that are based upon their respective Alphahorn Swing System signal. And 10 of those 12 trades are up double digits, with the DOW and CHINA leading the way up 37% and 36% respectively. The two trades that are under water are Corn and Wheat, which were entered early ahead of the Signal confirmation.
A choppy range bound week for the most part. Nothing has changed for my favorite wave count that is looking for the end of minor wave 4. Once complete, if not already complete, then we should see another push up in minor wave 5 to complete intermediate wave (3), then a bit deeper pullback in intermediate wave (4).
The more conservative scenario for the SPX wave count is shown below. This version is looking for a top for Cycle 1 of the bull market around 2250. However, I believe there is close to a 50/50 chance that the more aggressive target of 2500+ is reached. Of course we’ll yield to the Alphahorn Swing System for the trading call.
Next I’m going to show a couple of charts that I would expect to confirm the end of intermediate wave (3). As I noted earlier this week, I’m looking for some negative divergence to develop between the Renko and the indicators under it. Once this occurs, it would be a signal that intermediate wave (3) is concluding. No such negative divergence has developed at this point, but should as minor wave 4 concludes and minor wave 5 loses steam as it pushes upward.
The NYSI chart below is also a nice trend change indicator. Thus far none of the indicators has broken down and signaled a trend change, indicating the current pullback is most likely no more than a minor wave.
The Cycle chart below helped support our wave count back in May 2015. While the other Elliott Wave analysts were calling the top, we called for sell off that would test the wave (4) of lesser degree level. We went one step further and called for a relatively brief sell off based on the green sine wave low prediction on the chart below. In the end, both our wave count and the cycle prediction were spot on.
As another month draws to a close, the key equity index monthly charts are shown below. Most people panicked as the lower channel lines failed on a daily basis. But, as I noted continuously throughout primary wave [4], on a monthly basis the indexes always managed to crawl back over those lines and in doing so kept the bull market alive.
