Weekend Update

The SPX and Nasdaq joined the bull party on Friday confirming buy/long Alerts. Also, the Portfolio added positions in SMH per Thursday’s post and YINN per Friday’s Update. GLD is very overbought and has reached its upper red barrier. It might back up a bit, but I don’t think it has reached its target. Should DGP or JNUG be stopped out, then I’ll look for re-entry down the road.

The favorite blue count is shown below that minor wave 1 of (3) is headed toward the previous all time level made by intermediate wave (1) of [5] ~2954. After this, we should see a 38.2 or 50% pullback in (2).

Alternatively, there is more downside ahead. Should intermediate wave (2) of [5] still be unfolding as a complex corrective, then this bounce is a second x wave and another leg down in z to finish (2) still lies ahead. The bearish count is that the bull market has ended and now Cycle Wave 2 is underway. Intermediate wave (1) of this count was a leading diagonal and now true to form a very steep, rapid retracement is underway. Once complete, then not only will the June low fall, but also the December low will fall confirming the multi-month bear market is underway.

About alphahorn

I received an MBA from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business in New York and am a Wall Street veteran. I’ve worked for a number of investment banks including Smith Barney and First Boston/C S First Boston in New York. Over the years, I have developed my own Proprietary Swing System and I combine that System with my own Elliott Wave Analysis to trade.
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