All those “TOP” callers are wrong again!

I was talking to a friend who is an arb guy at a fairly large hedge fund this week and he said they were praying they could climb over 10% returns for 2019 so they could qualify for their bonuses. Meanwhile, we sit comfortably at +18% YTD having never bought into the top calls, (and in spite of a very poor, asleep at the wheel, long Energy holding). While we provide Elliott Wave Analysis, we utilize technical charts to help us develop our counts. And thanks to these charts, we never bought into the “TOP” calls back in September 2018 nor did we buy into the December 2018 “TOP”, see our historic Big Picture Count: We have held the view that at the very least we should expect a new all time high for the SPX in 2019 and that there is also a decent chance that this bull marches on to SPX 3200, perhaps 3300 before it dies. This hasn’t always been a popular view among our subscribers, but it has paid off for those who have stuck with us and trusted us to perform as we have historically going back to 2010 when this blog started.

This isn’t a political blog, it’s a financial blog. BUT, I correctly predicted a Trump victory 2 months before the election in 2016 when he trailed by 12 points in the polls based strictly on my wave count. Unlike most other Elliott Wave analysts, I had the count as primary wave [3] NOT [5] at that time and I hypothesized that only a pro business candidate who is promising corporate tax reductions could explain the socio-economic mindset of the nation. Similarly, the fate of the markets could lie in the hands of the people heading into 2020. Should Elizabeth Warren continue to strengthen in the polls, then expect the bearish red count to prevail. However, should Trump defy the odds then his pressure on the Fed to maintain quantitative easing could fuel the bubble as predicted by the blue count. Interesting times lie ahead for sure.

The Alphahorn Swing System continues on confirmed long/buy Signals for equities. On Friday, the Alphahorn Swing System confirmed the long/buy Signal for Miners and the long/buy Alerts for precious metals. As always, I’ll post if the the Portfolio takes any of the confirmed precious metals or miners trades. For now it remains in cash for those indexes.

The SPX wave count has reached the level that we’ve been projecting as a minimum target for the bull market 3030-3050. It’s now approaching the time when we’ll see if the ending diagonal plays out or if this bull market once again refuses to die and marches on per the blue favorite count. The blue count is that minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) of primary wave [5] is subdividing. This count fits perfectly with the ascending triangle I’ve noted. The upper neckline of the ascending triangle was breached to the upside on Friday. If minute wave [iii]=[i], then the target for [iii] is 3155, and minor wave 3 should reach the target of the ascending triangle of ~3200. For the red count, the ending diagonal would be drawing to a close as it reaches our minimum target zone for Cycle Wave 1 of 3030-3050. I’ve long held that if this count plays out, then R2 on the 30 min SPX chart at the time of the “top” would be the ideal target. That level currently sits at roughly 3050. So as the SPX approaches these key levels, it’s time for caution and stops on the long equity trades! Over the next couple of days, you’ll see stops in the Portfolio spreadsheet for each of the long positions.

Here are the big picture views of the two competing counts. Should be an interesting next couple of months, stay tuned! Or, if you’re not a subscriber, what the hell are you waiting for? Subscribe today

About alphahorn

I received an MBA from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business in New York and am a Wall Street veteran. I’ve worked for a number of investment banks including Smith Barney and First Boston/C S First Boston in New York. Over the years, I have developed my own Proprietary Swing System and I combine that System with my own Elliott Wave Analysis to trade.
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