Monday Update

The Portfolio is now up 29% YTD and not including taxes it’s value has appreciated 10 fold since inception January 2011. Ten years every trade posted.

The Real Estate Sector did not confirm its sell/short Signal today, that Alert remains and needs an IYR close below $83.76 to confirm the Signal. Otherwise equities remain on long/buy Signals and precious metals and miners on sell/short Signals. In spite of the long/buy Signals, the Portfolio moved predominately to cash as the first five waves up from the intermediate wave low seem to have completed today (more down below with the wave count). On the other hand, we are seeing green shoots among the precious metals and miners. And, as I noted yesterday we were seeing money rolling into the miners, royalty and streaming companies. So, I believe the pullback for this sector might finally be over. The pullback was deeper than I expected, but I think these drawdowns will be quickly erased.

The wave count continues as expected. The break up from the intermediate wave (4) triangle took place as projected yesterday. Since we have five waves up we have to respect the possibility that the degree of these waves is enough to complete primary wave [1]. For reasons I posted over the weekend, I don’t believe this is THE TOP, but just the minor wave 1 of (5) of [5] high. The depth of the anticipating pullback will shed some light. For now, with our 25% annual hurdle booked I continue to trade conservatively. Absent taxes, the Portfolio has appreciated in value 10 fold in 10 years, not too shabby, that’s a CAGR of over 26%.

The daily chart still shows the ultra bullish blue count. I’ll show it on the daily as long as it remains viable, although I believe it is a much lower probability.

About alphahorn

I received an MBA from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business in New York and am a Wall Street veteran. I’ve worked for a number of investment banks including Smith Barney and First Boston/C S First Boston in New York. Over the years, I have developed my own Proprietary Swing System and I combine that System with my own Elliott Wave Analysis to trade.
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