Quick BItcoin Update

Above are the BTCUSD weekly and four hour linear (non-log) charts that show a slightly different wave count than I’ve been showing. The immediate term expectations are roughly the same, the main difference is it is up one degree, in other words this pullback is labeled primary wave [4] of Cycle Wave 1 rather than intermediate wave (4) of primary wave [3] of Cycle Wave 1. The yellow horizontal line on the weekly chart up top marks the primary wave [1] high. By Elliott Wave rules, primary wave [4] CANNOT penetrate this level or the count is invalidated. The purple horizontal ray marks the wave intermediate wave (4) of primary wave [1] low. This wave four of lesser degree is the typical target of fourth waves. The pullback to 30,000ish almost reached this level and that pullback might have satisfied the primary wave [4], or we could see intermediate wave (C) of [4] make a slightly lower low around 25-29k to complete [4]. Once primary wave [4] is complete, then BTC should be off to new all-time highs and likely a break of 100K. This count would put in a nice double bottom and flush out more weak hands.

Compared to the linear chart, the weekly log chart above, seems to count better down a degree, in other words intermediate wave (3) rather than primary wave [3] has topped. Otherwise, the wave four of lesser degree rule holds for this scenario as well. Under both wave count scenarios, I see a bottom that is either in or very close to being in place. Until the low is taken out, the original count remains valid.

About alphahorn

I received an MBA from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business in New York and am a Wall Street veteran. I’ve worked for a number of investment banks including Smith Barney and First Boston/C S First Boston in New York. Over the years, I have developed my own Proprietary Swing System and I combine that System with my own Elliott Wave Analysis to trade.
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