Bitcoin Update and Possible Roadmap to New High

While it seems the rest of the crypto universe has/had gone extremely bearish on BTC, I called the ~30K low as THE LOW for this pullback the minute it happened; if you haven’t read this post, then I encourage you to give it a read https://alphahorncrypto.wordpress.com/2021/05/20/lol-at-all-the-wyckoff-distribution-talk-for-btc-and-an-overview-of-elliott-wave-analysis-and-the-bitcoin-ew-count/. Now, until BTC makes a new high, I could be proven wrong with this prediction. But, based upon my technical analysis, I believe BTC found support exactly where it was predicted to find support (see that link above). SO….what can we try to predict from the price action thus far for BTC since it put in the 30k low. Is there anything we can deduce about future price action. Well, perhaps….As most of you realize, the markets are a dynamic puzzle, ever changing and to beat them, you must adapt and change along with them. However, based on what we have so far, perhaps we can start to layout a roadmap for BTC’s road to a new high. The intermediate wave (4) low coupled with the minute wave [ii] of minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (5) low create two points over which we can draw a trend line, or in the case below a lower channel line. We can also key pivots along the way to determine areas of resistance and then support, and in the case of EW counts, key targets for the waves. It is very typical for minor wave 1 to seek the previous intermediate wave’s high. In this case minor wave 1 should top out around the intermediate wave (3) all-time high for bitcoin. This could be done at the top of the price channel as shown below, but it could drag out and finish a bit lower, in which case it would take longer to reach that level than the mid-October date shown in the chart below. Is this analysis a trading vehicle? Hell no! I would never for instance buy time sensitive calls off anything like this. But, it does provide a general roadmap, with key areas to watch out for (horizontal yellow lines) that could provide tough resistance, then nice support along the way. The direction of this channel can also change. Should BTC impulse upward and provide a second point of reference for the upper 1/3 line that is above the current channel, then I will redraw the channel and post it here. Until then, let’s see how well BTC tracks the following, best of luck.

About alphahorn

I received an MBA from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business in New York and am a Wall Street veteran. I’ve worked for a number of investment banks including Smith Barney and First Boston/C S First Boston in New York. Over the years, I have developed my own Proprietary Swing System and I combine that System with my own Elliott Wave Analysis to trade.
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