Happy 4th of July. Are we on the verge of some crypto fireworks?! Ethereum Update and my outlandish prediction for the next wave up.

This will we the first part of a two part update. I will look at BTC later. Let us begin with a look at Ethereum. But before I begin, I want to make a general statement about Cryptos and Elliott Waves that thus far has made them unique from equities. Although the sample size is small and statistically insignificant, what we have seen to date is that the fifth wave rather than the third wave for cryptos is the more impulsive wave. During Primary wave [1], Ethereum’s intermediate wave (5) was 3x the length of intermediate wave (3), 1291 points vs 416. The charts I’m showing are log scale so they can be deceiving with regard to linear length. The weekly chart for Ethereum below shows the wave count to date for ETH on a log scale chart. While the percentage move was greater during intermediate wave (3) of [1], on absolute terms intermediate wave (5) was 3x (3), once again 1291 points vs. 416. The same was true for minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) of primary wave [3] vs minor wave 5. While minor wave 5 appears much smaller on the long chart it was almost 2x the length of 3. So, with the new Ethereum 2 update coming out and with its deflationary qualities (the number of Ethereum will be going down) it is not so outlandish to presume intermediate wave (5) of primary wave [3] will be an order of magnitude longer than intermediate wave (3) of [3]. If (5) is 3x (3) as it was in primary wave [1], then the target for the next move up is 14,917! Is this preposterous? Time will tell.

Now that we’ve gotten way ahead of ourselves, let’s take a step back and look at the immediate term. My wave count for both ETH and BTC is that they have likely completed their respective fourth intermediate waves of primary wave [3]. If correct, then the low should be in place and we should be in the initial stages of a melt up in minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (5) of primary wave [3]. The first minor waves of a new intermediate wave typically search for the preceding high. The possible roadmap for the next couple of months could look something like what we see below. It has some pretty heavy overhead resistance from 2600-2900, but once it makes it through that zone and it becomes support, then it should be in position to test previous highs. I’ll be keeping an eye on the lower channel trend line for support.

A look at the 8hr ETH chart shows all the indicators have crossed over from oversold and have turned bullish. We should see a nice move to 2600, then the real test will come. Will ETH be able to climb through 2900 and then hold it for support, or will the bearish case prove true, that this bounce is merely a bull trap and both ETH and BTC will make lower lows as virtually every technical analyst is predicting?

About alphahorn

I received an MBA from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business in New York and am a Wall Street veteran. I’ve worked for a number of investment banks including Smith Barney and First Boston/C S First Boston in New York. Over the years, I have developed my own Proprietary Swing System and I combine that System with my own Elliott Wave Analysis to trade.
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1 Response to Happy 4th of July. Are we on the verge of some crypto fireworks?! Ethereum Update and my outlandish prediction for the next wave up.

  1. Pingback: Intermediate wave (5) of primary wave [3] Bitcoin Price Projection | Alphahorn's Market Musings

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