BTC has broken through its 38.2% and 50% retracement levels and is now poised to test the 61.8% level of ~48k. As I have noted previously, this test is typically followed by a retracement to the 38.2% level, ~36k. If this occurs again this halving cycle, then this could be the last great chance to buy BTC.

The wave count supports my thesis that the 48k target is within reach for the top of minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (3). Once 48k is achieved, we should expect a pullback to ~36k for minor wave 2, which fits into the historical norm of a retracement to the 38.2% retracement level.

ETH is lagging BTC coming out of crypto winter. This is expected. While BTC is already testing its 61.8% retracement level of 48k, ETH has yet to make it through its 38.2% retracement level, which remains as resistance. This lag should continue into the spring, but once the halving date rolls around, ETH should be beginning to outpace BTC.

From the last halving date to the all-time high, BTC’s price appreciated ~750%. In comparison over that same period of time, ETH’s price appreciated ~2500%. So while ETH lags BTC coming out of the crypto winter, once the BTC halving date arrives, ETH has historically more than made up for its poor start.