We head into the week with the Financials, Real Estate and the Dow on long/buy Signals. The Dow did trigger a sell/short Alert that will be confirmed with a DIA close below 515. The rest of the indexes are on sell/short Signals.

The Bitcoin Cycle Chart below confirmed the new bull cycle as indicated by the green vertical line marking the break out above the key over sold level. Now BTC has entered its minute wave [ii] pullback and is tracing out a very similar pattern on this indicator as it did two cycles ago – see yellow circle. Down lower is the favored BTC Elliott Wave count. I believe there is a very high chance that minute wave [ii] of minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (3) has bottomed. It has retraced 38.2% of the minute wave [i] gains (typical in a bullish intermediate wave). In addition, it is finding support at the 200 SMA – blue line, as well as the key MA on the 4 day chart up top.

The immediate term count for the SPX is a bit more difficult to discern. Like BTC, the SPX may have found its minute wave [ii] low. The top chart shows the percent of stock above their 200 day moving average. As long as the wave count is correct and this is not a major wave pullback, then the SPX has reached the range…50%-60% of stocks below their 200 DMA..to mark a typical bull market pullback low. A break above this box, i.e. 50% would likely confirm the low is in place. While a break below the box >60% of stocks below their 200 DMA would likely signal a deeper pullback is underway.

As long as the reversal on the chart above holds, and there is a confirming break back above the 50% level, then the wave count options shown below will remain valid. The count on the top chart is the favorite SPX wave count. This count correlates closely to the BTC count shown up above. This count is looking for an SPX low to be followed by an impulsive move up in minute wave [iii] of minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3). The lower chart shows a similar immediate term count. But, the lower chart shows a more mature count. Rather than intermediate wave (3), this count has the SPX in its final intermediate wave (5) of this bull market.