Here’s another view:
It would appear a wave has ended and a corrective wave has begun. The question that will be answered over the coming days/weeks is whether this marks the end of the first intermediate wave (1) of P3 and thus a deeper correction is coming, or was this just wave 3 of (1) and thus a less severe correction. I will exit the index based longs: DOW, SPX, RUT, Nasdaq if the SPX breaches the trend line of the chart, or according to my stops, whichever comes first.
2021 +36%
2020 +40%
2019 +27%
2018 return 6%
2017 return 16.3%
2016 return: +32%
2015 return: +3.6%
2014 return +.02%;
2013 return: +61.78%;
2012 retun: +31%;
2011 return: +77%
Iwill be adding to this section over time as questions come up in the comments section.
1) Do not EMAIL me, or INSTANT MESSAGE me or try to communicate with me in any way asking questions about buying or selling stocks, options, ETFs or anything else…I am not here to give investment advice. This is an educational and entertainment blog. I post my trades and why I trade the way I do for those two purposes. Sometimes you will learn from my good trades other times from my bad trades. But, your investment decisions are YOURS!
2)Stops: These are based upon daily closing prices for ETFs and stock, but are real time for OPTIONS. If peg a stop to a moving average for a specific time frame, then it is fluid and is based upon the final candle for that time frame. For example, if the stop is the 50 MA on the 60 minute chart, then the position remains if the closing candle for the day on the 60 min chart is above the 50 MA on that chart, and it closes out if it is below the MA. However, there are times when one shouldn’t wait for the close: a) should an index break down below a key pivot area that I have highlighted, then one need not wait for the close to exit a position, b) if it is evident that an index will close on the wrong side of a stop, then one can exit. Or, should the indexes impulse in the direction opposite the position.
3) The Portfolio at times will trade against the Alphahorn Swing System, based upon either immediate term indicators and/or Elliott wave counts. These positions should be viewed as high risk entries and like all investment decisions, one should consult their investment advisors and/or consider one’s own risk tolerance before considering such positions. Like everything else on this site, these are not recommendations to trade any particular security.
4) Do not ask me what my indicators are. I’ve spent years developing them and they are proprietary.
5) Averaging Down: In a word – DON’T! NEVER EVER AVERAGE DOWN. If you follow the position sizing rule above then this rule should be implied automatically. Once you’ve invested 2% of you capital your have reached the limit and NO MORE CAPITAL IS TO BE COMMITTED TO THAT POSITION!
Thanks for the update.
Quick question. When you get stopped out, do you now wait for the end of day charts to take the opposite position or do you jump in during that trading day. Selling pressure is very high today and so is volume. I have not seen ticks this negative in a few weeks.
I was about to do an update. I am initiating shorts on a couple of indexes today: Financials and Transports, will wait on the trendline break for the remainder as this could be wave (iv) of [iii] still, with another push up to come after a quick trip down to around 1290-1305.
My interpretation of the morning update is that we are not short despite this big drop.