Thursday Update

Alphahorn Swing 2015The Silver short ZSL was stopped out and profits were taken taken.  Although premature relative to the confirmation of a signal, NUGT, the miners long trade was entered today.  All commodities showed some strength today, but if my view of the overall markets is correct, then this could be premature for commodities as I expect one final push up for equities, which will likely coincide with a final push down for commodities.  I elected the most volatile commodity in the even I’m wrong and we have a failed fifth wave, more on that below.  Note on the index charts that the red/green indicator play key support for many of the equity indexes.  Sell/short ALerts were triggered today and closes below today’s lows will confirm those trades and they will be entered.

It seems the Internet bloggers have gone full bear after today.  Those who had previously called tops and who were beginning to hedge their bets are back on their bearish top counts.  While it is possible that we have a failed fifth wave, one that doesn’t make a new high, I doubt that will be the case.  I now think intermediate wave four (4) of primary wave [5] has not completed, but is tracing out a triangle, typical of fourth waves.  I show this count below and on the daily chart below. This count works well for the DOW and SPX.  The NDX has made a new high and might have completed its bull market; I’ll keep a close eye on it.  If I’m correct, then we might see some early morning weakness tomorrow as wave c of (4) finishes, but we should see a green close and the low of a 2018 should not be breached.  More choppiness should pursue for a couple of weeks as the d and e waves play out, but ultimately we should see a break up from this triangle which will give a precise target for the top of [5]. spx 30adfall daily

About alphahorn

I received an MBA from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business in New York and am a Wall Street veteran. I’ve worked for a number of investment banks including Smith Barney and First Boston/C S First Boston in New York. Over the years, I have developed my own Proprietary Swing System and I combine that System with my own Elliott Wave Analysis to trade.
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