One trading day left in 2020: Up 41% YTD

2020 has been a volatile year of trading. But the Portfolio has had another nice year currently up 41% going into the last trading day of the year. With the exception of Bitcoin, the few remaining positions will be exited just before the close tomorrow. For Bitcoin this years returns, and the benchmark for next year’s returns will be the price of BTC at midnight eastern standard time as the east coast welcomes the new year. The Portfolio in its 10 years of existence has grown from $100,000 in value 1/1/2011 to its current value of over $1.132 million. And, it has outperformed the vast majority of money managers and hedge funds by achieving an ~11 fold increase in value, or a CAGR of ~27.5% over a 10 year period. I wish all of you a Happy New Year and a prosperous and hopefully more sane 2021.

The indicators on the 30 min chart are beginning to turn down from over bought levels. If the diagonal count is correct, then we are seeing either a leading diagonal for minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (5) of primary wave [1] or and ending diagonal that completes intermediate wave (5) of primary wave [1]. Should we see a pullback as the new year opens for trading as this chart seems to suggest, then the depth of the pullback will be the differentiating factor between the two wave count scenarios. The red count must find support above the intermediate wave (4) low. The purple wave count calls for a much deeper pullback in primary wave [2] that should take out the intermediate wave (4) low.

Below is the NASI chart that I’ve been showing off and on with the Nasdaq in the background (shaded area). As I’ve noted, this chart is a great leading indicator to a top and does a great job of building negative divergence between the indicators and the Nasdaq price. This negative divergence has not materialized. Thus, I would expect higher highs for the Nasdaq, perhaps after a small pullback to build the negative divergence needed.

About alphahorn

I received an MBA from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business in New York and am a Wall Street veteran. I’ve worked for a number of investment banks including Smith Barney and First Boston/C S First Boston in New York. Over the years, I have developed my own Proprietary Swing System and I combine that System with my own Elliott Wave Analysis to trade.
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