Year-End Update: Another great year +40% for 2020

Another great year for the Alphahorn Portfolio finishing the year up 40% bringing the Portfolio value to approximately $1.23 million. The slate was wiped clean at midnight eastern on 12/31. We enter 2021 with only the Bitcoin holding. Over the past several months, we have seen nice moves for Bitcoin over the weekend and this weekend is no exception. BTC is up over 10% since the midnight 12/31 close. Also regarding the Alphahorn Swing System, every index enters the year on a long/buy Signal. Two sectors, biotech and Energy however are on sell/short Alerts and need closes below BIB 85.86 and XLE 37.01 to confirm those Signals. I’m in a wait and see mood with the potential volatility coming out of Washington. As always I’ll post should any trades be made.

The wave count is looking for the completion of a diagonal. For the red count it would be a leading diagonal for minor wave 1 of intermediate wave (5) of primary wave [1]. For the purple count, it would represent an ending diagonal for intermediate wave (5) and thus primary wave [1].

In addition to the red and purple counts shown above, there is also a bullish blue count scenario. The blue count lags the other counts as it is only in minor wave 3 of intermediate wave (3) of primary wave [1]. I won’t spend too much time on this until the diagonal is invalidated or 3833 as labeled in purple above.

Below is the key chart for the next couple of weeks. We’ve been watching the NASI chart below as a leading indicator for a Nasdaq top. The negative divergence between the indicators and price (shaded area) have historically predicted tops. We are finally beginning to see signs of that divergence, which of course requires higher highs for the Nasdaq as the indicators roll over. But, at last the top seems to be in sight.

About alphahorn

I received an MBA from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business in New York and am a Wall Street veteran. I’ve worked for a number of investment banks including Smith Barney and First Boston/C S First Boston in New York. Over the years, I have developed my own Proprietary Swing System and I combine that System with my own Elliott Wave Analysis to trade.
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